Market Analysis: Turkish Dried Apricot Exports

A Strategic Review of Key Markets: Georgia, Kazakhstan, and UAE

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the export potential for Turkish dried apricots (HS Code 081310) in three distinct markets: Georgia, Kazakhstan, and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on 2023 trade data and market intelligence.

• Kazakhstan represents the largest market by far in terms of volume, importing over 22,000 tonnes annually. However, it is highly competitive, dominated by low-cost suppliers from neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

• The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a moderate-volume, high-value market heavily reliant on Turkish imports. Its strengths are a strong HORECA sector, a thriving gift market, and high consumer spending power, but it is price-competitive.

• Georgia is a small, price-sensitive market with duty-free access for Turkish goods. It is dominated by imports from Iran and Turkey, with opportunities existing primarily in niche, value-added segments.

Strategic success requires a segmented approach: competing on volume and reliability for industrial and wholesale buyers while developing premium, branded products for the growing retail, health, and gift segments in the UAE and urban Kazakhstan. Key risks include global economic downturns impacting non-essential spending, payment defaults from importers, and severe supply shocks from events like frost in Turkey's Malatya region.

1. Comparative Market Overview (2023)

An overview of the import landscape in 2023 highlights the significant differences in scale and key suppliers across the three markets.

Key Takeaways from Data:

• Market Size: Kazakhstan's import volume is over 100 times larger than Georgia's and 15 times larger than the UAE's.

• Turkish Dominance: Turkey is the primary supplier to the UAE, accounting for over 62% of its imports.

• Regional Competition: In Kazakhstan, Turkey is a distant second to Tajikistan. In Georgia, Iran is the dominant supplier by volume.

• Trade Barriers: Turkish exporters have a significant advantage in Georgia due to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), while facing a 5% tariff in the larger Kazakh and UAE markets.

2. Georgia: In-Depth Analysis

Market Context

Georgia's liberal trade regime and proximity make it an accessible but small market. Its distribution channels are a mix of growing modern retail (supermarkets, health stores) and traditional bazaars. While local brands like Kerki and Kareli Fruits are emerging in the value-added snack segment, the bulk of imports is handled by distributors sourcing from Iran and Turkey. Consumers range from price-sensitive traditional buyers to urban consumers seeking healthy, well-packaged options.

SWOT Analysis

Strategic Recommendations for Georgia

1. Focus on Niches: Emphasize premium/organic apricots for health and gift markets. Maintain low-cost bulk lines for food processors and industrial buyers.

2. Leverage FTAs: Use the Turkey-Georgia FTA to maintain competitive pricing. Explore the Georgia-EU DCFTA for potential re-export opportunities.

3. Support Local Branding: Partner with or support domestic processors to build local demand and create value-added products.

4. Diversify Buyers: Target emerging retail chains, online grocers, and HORECA channels with flexible packaging and attractive payment terms.

3. Kazakhstan: In-Depth Analysis

Market Context

As an EAEU member, Kazakhstan applies a 5% external tariff on Turkish apricots. The market features a well-developed modern retail network led by chains like Magnum and Small, alongside warehouse clubs like METRO. While e-commerce is growing, it remains a small channel. Local processors like FRUTTA and confectioners are significant buyers. The primary competition comes from vast, low-cost supplies from neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

SWOT Analysis

Strategic Recommendations for Kazakhstan

1. Enhance Supply Reliability: Build stock to hedge against crop fluctuations and offer a more reliable alternative to regional suppliers.

2. Offer a Segmented Product Line: Maintain a two-tier approach: low-cost bulk apricots for the mass market and premium lines (organic, freeze-dried) for modern retail.

3. Build Distributor Partnerships: Work through leading retail distributors by offering flexible pricing, volume discounts, and secure payment terms (e.g., Letter of Credit).

4. Invest in End-User Marketing: Use in-store promotions and localized packaging (Russian/Kazakh) to differentiate Turkish quality from lower-priced alternatives.

4. UAE: In-Depth Analysis

Market Context

The UAE applies a 5% GCC duty on Turkish apricots. The market is defined by a highly modern and competitive retail sector (Carrefour, LuLu Hypermarket, Spinneys) and booming food e-commerce. A massive HORECA sector and a strong tradition of gifting (especially during Ramadan) create significant demand. The UAE imports nearly all its dried fruit, with major distributors like Royal Nabeel and Al Nama Herbals supplying the market. Competition is fierce across all segments, from bulk to luxury.

SWOT Analysis

Strategic Recommendations for UAE

1. Secure Contracts and Terms: Use Letters of Credit (L/C), clear payment terms (DAP or CIF), and potentially escrow arrangements to mitigate credit risk.

2. Develop a Multi-Channel Mix: Leverage both retail (Carrefour, etc.) and e-commerce (Amazon, Talabat). Partner with specialty health shops to reach niche segments.

3. Tailor Packaging: Introduce attractive gift packaging for the luxury segment and provide large, food-service packs (5-10 kg) for the HORECA sector.

4. Implement a Flexible Pricing Strategy: Maintain competitive pricing while emphasizing superior Turkish quality. Offer promotional deals during key festivals like Ramadan.

5. Scenario Planning & Risk Mitigation

Scenario 1: Global Economic Crisis

• Impact: Reduced consumer spending on non-essential items. Demand shifts to lower-cost alternatives. Premium and gift segments shrink.

• Mitigation Strategy:

  • Pricing: Introduce budget lines and smaller pack sizes. Offer volume discounts.

  • Product: Focus on industrial-grade bulk apricots for food processors.

  • Payment: Shorten payment cycles, require deposits from new buyers, and use L/C.

  • Risk Matrix: | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Sharp demand drop | High | High | Diversify to industrial segments; focus on value. | | Payment defaults | High | High | Use L/C, require deposits, insure receivables. | | Intense price competition | High | Medium | Optimize cost structure; highlight quality/reliability. |

Scenario 2: Surge in Demand

• Impact: Pressure on supply and logistics. Potential for stockouts. Retailers compete for limited stock.

• Mitigation Strategy:

  • Operations: Use reserve inventory, expedite processing, and coordinate with producers.

  • Pricing: Implement moderate, justified price increases. Offer discounts for large/early orders.

  • Prioritization: Honor long-term contracts first, then allocate to highest-margin customers.

  • Risk Matrix: | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Stockouts / unmet orders | High | High | Build buffer inventory; speed up processing. | | Logistics bottlenecks | Medium | Medium | Pre-book shipping containers; use air freight if critical. | | Price inflation alienating buyers | Medium | Medium | Cap increases; communicate value; offer multiple grades. |

Scenario 3: Major Importer/Distributor Fails

• Impact: Disruption of export pipeline. Potential for unpaid shipments and loss of market access.

• Mitigation Strategy:

  • Diversify Channels: Avoid over-reliance on one partner. Have backup distributors and develop direct sales channels (e-commerce, direct to retail).

  • Secure Contracts: Use secure payment terms (L/C at sight) and hold title to goods until payment is received.

  • Logistics: Ship smaller batches tied to payment milestones.

  • Risk Matrix: | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Loss of market access | Medium | High | Maintain standby distributors; expand direct sales. | | Inventory tied up / lost | Medium | High | Use L/C and other secure documentary payment terms. | | Contractual disputes | Medium | Medium | Use clear Incoterms; require insurance. |

Scenario 4: Severe Supply Shock (e.g., Malatya Frost, –60% Yield)

• Impact: Drastic reduction in export volume. Inability to fulfill commitments. Global prices will surge.

• Mitigation Strategy:

  • Communication: Be transparent with all buyers immediately. Renegotiate volumes and delivery schedules.

  • Sourcing: Seek alternative apricot sources (other Turkish regions, Iran, Uzbekistan) to partially fulfill orders.

  • Pricing & Allocation: Invoke force majeure clauses. Ration available supply, prioritizing long-term, high-value partners.

  • Risk Matrix: | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Severe order cancellations | High | High | Provide timely notice; offer substitutes/alternatives. | | Contract breaches | High | High | Maintain documentation; invoke force majeure clauses fairly. | | Reputational damage | Medium | Medium | Be transparent; offer goodwill gestures on future orders. |

6. Sources

• Trade Statistics: UN Comtrade / World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) - wits.worldbank.org

• Georgia Policy: NH Logistics - nh-logistics.com

• Georgia Market: Trade with Georgia - tradewithgeorgia.com

• Kazakhstan Tariff: IFCG - ifcg.ru

• Kazakhstan Market: USDA-FAS - apps.fas.usda.gov

• Kazakhstan Processor: FRUTTA - fruitart.kz

• UAE Tariff: UAE Government - u.ae

• UAE Market: USDA-FAS - apps.fas.usda.gov